Ian Petchenik

 

As Iran launched a retaliatory attack on Israel last weekend, airspace in the region was restricted, impacting thousands of flights that normally navigate the busy airways of the Middle East. Comparing the days preceding the attack to the days after gives an idea of the importance of the region to global air travel as well as the gravity of the dangers facing flights in the area.

Closing airspace

FIR boundaries and airways in the region. Click to enlarge

When Iran launched hundreds of projectiles in the direction of Israel, Jordan was the first to close its airspace, “for operational reasons.” This was followed by Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel. While Iran did not close its airspace entirely, it did restrict flights in the western half of the country.

What do the changes look like?

The 14th of April clearly shows the impact of airspace closures as many flights that normally pass through Iraq and Iran take alternate routings. On the 13th of April, 794 flights used Iraqi airspace. That number dropped to 253 on April 14. Similarly in Iran, flight activity dropped from 1,253 flights on the 13th to 650 on the 14th. Flights rebounded on the 15th, but not quite to normal levels. On April 15, 677 flights used Iraqi airspace, while 952 flew through Iran.

Red areas indicated existing airspace restrictions or closures. Yellow indicates temporary restrictions around 14 April, while purple indicates Russian airspace, which is unavailable to many airlines.

The total number of flights did not markedly decrease (just 6% from 12 to 14 April), so where are aircraft routing instead? In the absence of available safe airspace through Iran and Iraq, flights are forced to route farther north through Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Alternatively, flights can opt for the more southern route, passing through Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The two north and south routes for traffic between Asia and Europe are already compacted due to conflict zones on either side of the routes, with the war in Ukraine forcing traffic south and conflict in Sudan and Libya forcing traffic north.

Which airlines are most affected?

Airlines that heavily utilize Iraq and Iran as transit space were most impacted by last weekend’s restrictions (and will be most impacted by any future restrictions). The data also shows a shift of some flights from Iraq to Iran as the latter still had available air routes in the eastern half of the country. Gulf-hubbed airlines—with massive fleets and heavily banked schedules—are particularly susceptible to any long-term disruptions, with each additional track mile necessitating extra fuel amongst other considerations.

Iraq

Nearly every airline avoided Iraq on the 14th of April—even after the NOTAM closing the country’s airspace was lifted, with the notable exception of Qatar Airways.

Iran

Looking at the data for Iran, it’s possible to see the shift by Emirates from Iraq to Iran over the course of the weekend with increasing flights on 13-14 April.

Looking to the future

Any expanded conflict, especially one that encompasses Iraq and Iran either through direct hostilities or simply via airspace closure due to safety concerns, would further compact already congested airspace. Many airlines are already operating at the margin of profitability on long-haul routes that have needed to adjust to successive changes in available air routes. Further increasing the distance flown could challenge the viability of those routes and reshape the composition of traffic passing through the region.

Additional airspace compression also raises the question of air traffic control capability. How many flights can these corridors safely handle before traffic calming measures are needed?