Capt.Augustine Okon

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opinion Poll on the Aviation Fuel Market in Nigeria

By Capt. Augustine Inyang Okon

Chairman Avifuel Limited

Delivered at the CITA Energies Colloquium

Lagos, Thursday, 23rd October 2025

Theme: Aviation Fuel Business in Nigeria – The Scenario and the Metaphor

Opening: The Scenario and the Metaphor

Distinguished colleagues, captains of industry, regulators, and fellow aviators — good morning.

When I first received the invitation to speak on “Opinion Poll on the Aviation Fuel Market,” I smiled. Because in our business, opinions on aviation fuel are like weather reports — everyone has one, and they change faster than the wind at Murtala Muhammed on a wet rainy day.

So, if today’s talk sounds like a pilot’s weather briefing, forgive me — we are flying through turbulent airspace.

Setting the Scene

The aviation fuel market is the invisible engine behind our skies. Without Jet A-1, our airplanes are just beautifully painted sculptures parked on the tarmac. Yet for too long, this market has been shrouded in clouds of uncertainty — rising costs, forex pressure, import dependence, and erratic supply.

The theme of this colloquium, “The Scenario and the Metaphor,” could not be more appropriate. Because the scenario is technical — economics, logistics, refineries, and pricing. But the metaphor… the metaphor is emotional. It is about trust, hope, and the collective dream of a self-reliant aviation nation.

Taking the Poll – Listening to the Industry

So, what does my opinion poll reveal?

It’s not a questionnaire with tick boxes; it’s a listening exercise across hangars, boardrooms, depots, and cockpits. It’s the voice of the industry — from pilots to fuel marketers, from regulators to passengers.

Let me summarize the findings in four simple but revealing “voices”:

1. The Airlines’ Voice

Airlines tell me they are flying with one eye on the sky and the other on the fuel gauge.

Fuel now takes up nearly half of their operating cost. Prices swing wildly because they are pegged to the dollar — yet revenues are earned in Naira.

One airline executive told me recently, “Captain, every time the naira coughs, our engines sneeze.”

Their sentiment is one of frustration mixed with resilience. They crave stability — predictable pricing and reliable supply.

2. The Marketers’ Voice

Fuel marketers, on their part, feel misunderstood. They say margins are thin, forex is scarce, logistics are costly, and debts from airlines pile up like rubbish bin at Agege.

They are navigating a storm of their own — trying to keep fuel flowing in a market that often runs on promises and delayed payments.

Yet, behind their complaints lies optimism. They believe the arrival of local refining — finally — will change the weather pattern.

3. The Regulators’ Voice

Our regulators and policymakers, meanwhile, speak with cautious assurance. They point to reforms, to Dangote Refinery, to modular refineries, to a renewed local content drive.

They say, “Help is on the way.” And indeed, for once, we can see the light through the clouds.

But the industry still expects more: speed, coordination, and enforcement. It’s not enough to announce policy; we must fuel it into motion.

4. The Passengers’ Voice

And then, of course, there’s the voice of the public — the passenger who pays for all our inefficiencies.

To them, high ticket prices, delays, and cancellations are the visible symptoms of an invisible ailment — fuel costs.

If you stopped ten passengers at Lagos Airport today and asked what they think of aviation fuel, most would shrug and say, “All we know is that flight prices keep going up.”

And they’re right.

Reading the Sentiment – The Market Mood

So, if this were truly an opinion poll, here’s what the results might look like:

60% of industry voices are anxious — watching fuel prices like a weather radar.

25% are cautiously hopeful — seeing the Dangote Refinery as a ray of light.

10% remain skeptical — saying, “We’ve heard this before.”

And the final 5%? Eternal optimists — the ones who believe that Nigeria can and will fuel its own future.

I count myself proudly among that five percent.

The Metaphor of Flight

Let me borrow a metaphor from the cockpit.

Every pilot knows that takeoff is optional — but landing is mandatory.

Nigeria’s aviation fuel market has taken off many times on wings of policy announcements, yet too often, it circles in holding patterns, burning fuel but not making progress.

Now, for the first time in decades, we see a clear runway ahead.

A New Horizon: Dangote and Domestic Refining

A few months ago, Nigeria was importing aviation fuel — begging for forex, battling shortages, and watching prices climb.

Today, we are witnessing something historic: the Dangote Refinery exporting aviation fuel to the world.

That single development changes the entire flight plan. It means we no longer have to fly abroad to refuel. It means the storm clouds of dependency are beginning to clear.

But the true breakthrough will come when we align policy with patriotism:

Let Nigeria sell crude to Dangote in Naira.

And in turn, let Dangote sell aviation fuel to Nigerian airlines in Naira based prices.

That single act will drastically reduce the foreign exchange component of our airlines’ operations and strengthen the naira from the inside out.

This, colleagues, is not just an economic reform — it is a patriotic flight path.

Charting the Course Ahead

So, where does our opinion poll lead us?

It tells us that the aviation fuel market is a mirror of Nigeria itself:

rich in promise, hampered by inefficiency, yet always full of hope.

To steady the flight, we must:

1. Anchor Jet A-1 supply to local refining capacity — not to imported benchmarks.
2. Adopt transparent pricing indices tied to local cost realities.
3. Create a Joint Aviation Fuel Board — bringing airlines, NNPC, NCAA, and marketers to the same cockpit.
4. Modernize airport fuel storage and pipelines through PPP models.
5. Prepare for the future — Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), green energy, and efficiency investments.

We cannot keep flying by dead reckoning. The world is moving toward energy independence and green flight; Nigeria must not be left taxiing on the runway.

Closing: Hope Rising

Colleagues, our skies are wide, our people are capable, and our fuel is finally homegrown.

Let us therefore turn this new chapter into a defining one.

Let the story of the Nigerian aviation fuel market no longer be a metaphor for turbulence, but a symbol of takeoff — national takeoff.

When our airlines buy Jet A-1 in Naira, when our refineries run on local crude, and when our passengers feel the benefit in affordable, reliable air travel — then we will have truly achieved flight level stability as a nation.

So, as we leave this colloquium today, let us each be ambassadors of that vision —

A Nigeria that refuels itself, sustains itself, and believes in itself.

After all, as every pilot knows, you cannot fly far without trusting your own engine.

Thank you, and may Nigeria’s aviation fuel story continue to rise — not as smoke, but as the morning light.

Capt Augustine Okon

Lagos 23 Oct 2025

(Capt Okon is the: Founding Chairman/CEO, ADC Airlines.

Chairman/CEO, Fresh Air Ltd

CEO, Safe Air Academy)

He likes to now be referred to as a farmer.